40-minute 10k: Bolder Boulder pacing strategies

I looked at my Bolder Boulder splits from the last three years to see if I could come up with a good strategy for pacing this year. The problem is the elevation profile -- it's a somewhat hilly course, at least for a course where you're trying to get a new PR.

Here's the profile again...

Now here's a chart showing my kilometer splits. Note that they're converted to pace per mile. A 40-minute 10k pace would average 6:26 per mile (4 minutes per km).

Finishing times:

2004: 41:25
2005: 40:39
2006: 43:46

There is a definite pattern in years 2004-2005. My pace is faster on the downhill sections, and slower on the climbs, just as you would expect. 2006 follows this pattern for the first three kilometers, and then I completely blow up, falling off the pace drastically.

So, how should I pace this year's Bolder Boulder? I think I will keep it simple: go faster than goal pace on the downhills, and allow myself to slow down a bit on the uphills. Although everyone warns about going out too fast at the start of a 10k, the fact remains that this is one of the fastest kilometers in the race because it's downhill. To me, it would be a mistake to waste this opportunity for a few "free" seconds. I think 10-12 seconds under goal pace for the first kilometer should be fine. That's what I ran in 2005 and I ran almost even 5k splits (20:19 and 20:20) for the race. From there, if I can keep it to 4:05 per kilometer or faster on the climbs, I should be ok. I'll try to pick it up to goal pace or slightly faster on all the flats and downhills.

Just for kicks, I'll make a prediction for my splits: